Initial Market Projection

MUSE needs an initial projection of the market prices for each period of the simulation.

  • The price trajectory is needed if the MCA works in equilibrium mode as an initial start point for the base year of the simulation. The market will override the calculated prices obtained from each commodity equilibrium for all the future periods following the base year

  • Similarly, if the market works in a carbon budget mode, the prices are used as a starting point. The only difference from the previous case is that the MCA calculates an additional global market price for carbon dioxide (and additional pollutants if required)

  • If the MCA works in an exogenous mode, it will use the initial market projection as the projection for the the base year and all the future periods of the simulation

The forward price trajectory should follow the structure reported in the table below.

Initial market projections

RegionName

Attribute

Time

com1

com2

com3

Unit

Year

MUS$2010/PJ

MUS$2010/PJ

MUS$2010/PJ

region1

CommodityPrice

2010

20

1.9583

2

region1

CommodityPrice

2015

20

1.9583

2

region1

CommodityPrice

2020

20.38518042

1.996014941

2.038518042

region1

CommodityPrice

2025

20.77777903

2.034456234

2.077777903

region1

CommodityPrice

2030

21.17793872

2.073637869

2.117793872

region1

CommodityPrice

2035

21.58580508

2.113574105

2.158580508

region1

CommodityPrice

2040

22.00152655

2.154279472

2.200152655

region1

CommodityPrice

2045

22.42525441

2.195768786

2.242525441

region1

CommodityPrice

2050

22.85714286

2.238057143

2.285714286

RegionName

represents the region ID and needs to be consistent across all the data inputs

Attribute

defines the attribute type. In this case it refers to the CommodityPrice; it is relevant only for internal use

Time

corresponds to the time periods of the simulation; the simulated time framework in the example goes from 2010 through to 2050 with a 5-year time step

com1, …, comN

Any further columns represent the commodities modelled, as defined in the global commodities the row Unit reports the unit in which the technology consumption is defined; it is for the user internal reference only. The names comX should be replaced with the names of the commodities.